【英国《泰晤士报》网站2月4日文章】题：我们需要建立新的资本主义模式来与中国抗衡(作者 阿纳托尔·卡莱斯基)
After the crisis of 2007-09, the global capitalist system is in a period of transition, comparable to the great transitions of the 1930s and 1970s. The question that nobody wants to raise is whether the new model of capitalism that emerges to dominate the world will be a radically reformed version of the Western democratic system or some variant of the authoritarian state-led capitalism favoured in China, Russia and many other emerging economies.
由于这次金融危机，全球资本主义体系处于转变时期，这可与上世纪30年代和70年代的重大转变相提并论。在上周的达沃斯世界经济论坛上，显然有些话没有人敢提及：即将主导世界的新资本主义模式是经过大刀阔斧改革的西方民主体系？还是中国和俄罗斯及许多其他新兴经济体所喜欢的独裁国家资本主义的某种变体？
As a leading US diplomat told me: “Since the crisis, developing countries have lost interest in the old Washington consensus that promoted democracy and liberal economics. Wherever I go in the world, governments and business leaders talk about the new Beijing consensus — the Chinese route to prosperity and power. The West must come up with a new model of capitalism that’s consistent with our political values. Either we reinvent ourselves or we will lose.”
一位美国外交官对我说：“自经济危机以来，发展中国家对原有的促进民主和自由的‘华盛顿共识’不感兴趣了。无论我去哪里，各国政府和企业领导人都在谈论‘北京共识’——中国的繁荣和权力之路。西方必须提出一个与我们的政治观念相一致的新的资本主义模式。如果不彻底改造我们原有的模式，我们势必会失败。”
There are several ways of dealing with, or dodging, this challenge. The easiest way, most in evidence last week at Davos, is plain denial. Instead of thinking about the future, it is easier to focus on the past, to quibble about regulations and argue about who is to blame.
有几个办法可以应对或者说规避这种挑战。最简单的办法就是直接否认。忙着讨论究竟经济危机是谁的错这种历史问题，比考虑未来更容易一些。
Another more insidious form of denial is to pretend that the Chinese and Western models of capitalism are not really very different. Everyone, after all, is in business to make money. It is also the official line of Chinese and Western governments. Our two models can prosper in peaceful co-existence and mutual respect.
一个更为阴险的吾认形式就是佯称中国和西方的资本主义模式没有什么根本不同。毕竟所有人经商都是为了赚饯。这是所有在中国进行大规模投资的企业界人士的看法，也是中国和西方政府的官方路线：我们两种模式可以和平共处、相互尊重。
This is an illusion, as was evident from the background chatter in Davos. Whether we look at business practices, economic policies, political and human rights or geopolitical interests, it is clear that China and the West are on a collision course. Serious collisions may not occur for decades, but the two models of politico-economic development are incompatible in the long term.
这是一种幻想。不论是从商业惯例、经济致策、政治和人权还是地缘政治利益上来看，中国和西方显然是相互冲突的。几十年内可能不会发生严重的冲突，但从长远来看，这两种政治经济发展模式是不可调和的。
In business practice, China unambiguously favours domestic industries over Western exporters and investors. China’s determination to run huge export surpluses and maintain an undervalued exchange rate gives America and Europe cheap consumer products; but it also means lost jobs and the accumulation of ever-more foreign debts. On human rights, far from confirming the naive slogan of the Thatcher-Reagan period that free markets create free people, China is becoming more adamant in its rejection of Western-style democracy. Perhaps most seriously, China’s growing confidence in its authoritarian politics and government-led economic development is creating inevitable frictions with the West.
在商业惯例方面，中国明确支持国内企业而不是西方出口商和投资者。中国保持巨额出口盈余和被低估的汇率，这使得美国和欧洲拥有大量廉价消费品；但这也意味着失业以及积累更多外债。在人权问题上，远没有证实撒切尔-里根时期的天真口号：自由市场造就自由的人民，中国在拒绝西方式的民主方面变得更加坚定。也许最为严重的是，中国对其政治体制和政府领导的经济发展更有信心，这将不可避免地引发与西方之间的摩擦。
We in the West have a choice. Either we concede the argument that China has been a much more successful and durable culture than America or Western Europe and is now reclaiming its natural position of global leadership. Or we stop denying the rivalry between the Chinese and Western models and start thinking seriously about how Western capitalism can be reformed to have a better chance of winning.
我们西方人的选择是：要么承认中国较美国或西欧拥有更为成功和持久的文化，而且中国现在要求归还其全球领导地位；要么我们不再否认中国和西方模式之间的敌对状态，并开始认真考虑西方资本主义如何进行改革才能更有胜算。
The challenge for Western thinking now is to create a fourth version of capitalism that builds on the best elements of the classical, Keynesian and Thatcher-Reagan models, but adapts to the needs of the 21st century and specifically to the rivalry with China’s dynamic and self-confident authoritarian system.
现在，西方思维面临的挑战是要在古典、凯思斯、撒切尔-里根模式的基础之上创建第四种资本主义模式，以适应21世纪的需要，尤其是为了与中国充满活力的、自信的独裁体制相对抗。
Some of the changes required are obvious, and are happening already.
有些必须的改变是显而易见的，而且已经发生了。
